Supreme Novice Hurdle
The first race the festival will be greeted by the famous Cheltenham
roar as they come out on to the track and what a competitive renewal we have to
kick off what will be brilliant festival. The market leader My Tent Or Yours is
now a short favourite after some excellent displays this season but history and
statistics don’t lie and this race doesn’t tend to be won by a favourite.
My Tent Or Yours
You certainly cannot mock what MTOY has achieved this
season, the way he won the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury a few weeks ago was quite
stunning in what is normally a very competitive race. This was far from it, as
he destroyed the field with complete ease and subsequently his price was cut
drastically into what is now a 6/4 favourite, which I think is a fair price for
a horse which the champion jockey described early season as his most exciting
prospect. Favourites generally don’t do to well in the supreme but I currently
cannot see anything to suggest there is a better horse in the field.
Jezki
Looking at Jezki’s form in brief would suggest he has a big
chance here; however in further detail he doesn’t strike me as a Cheltenham
horse. All his best form comes on soft ground in small fields over in Ireland where
the competitiveness of racing is not what it is over here in England. He hasn’t
beaten anything of any real calibre bar the once promising Champagne Fever. The
two races where he has been competing against more than 12 horses he finished 8th
and 5th. Last time at Cheltenham he didn’t show up, and was well
beaten on good ground. Even if the ground came up real soft this year he may
have a sniff but then I’m not sure he would be up for a hard fought slog! He’s
what I describe as a small field bully.
Un Atout
Another talented Irish trained Horse at a low price, but
this time there is more promise. Willie Mullins isn’t normally one to give away
what races his horses are aiming for however he has been adamant about Un Atout’s
prospects in this year’s Supreme for some time now. A 100% record this season
cannot be ignored but from what we have seen so far all his wins have been
slogs in the mud on heavy ground around Ireland. Another worry for me is that
Mullins has also said he sees him as a future chaser, and from what I have seen
so far he certainly jumps like one. On that note I just don’t think he’s going
to have the speed to win the supreme this year.
Dodging Bullets
Paul Nicholls leading contender is officially the second
highest rated horse in the field and has already won here at Cheltenham twice
this season beating the promising River Maigue in November on good ground. At
Christmas he went to Kempton (heavy ground) and finished a respectable third to
the ill-fated Darlan in what was really a champion hurdle trial. Cinders and
Ashes and Countrywide Flame (both Champion hurdle contenders this year) were
well beaten and this form alone for me just proved how good Dodging Bullets is;
in my opinion an underrated horse.
Melodic Rendezvous
The last year for Melodic Rendezvous has been pretty much
from zero to hero for the team down in Somerset with all involved stunned at
what this horse has achieved. He keeps improving and most importantly keeps
winning. His maiden grade 1 victory came at Sandown a few months ago, he then
went on to beat Puffin Billy at Exeter although it was said Puffin Billy was
lame after the race. My only worry is his form very much reminds me of Jezki;
all in small fields on soft ground however the step up and better ground may
suit him even more.
And the rest…
River Maigue won impressively
at Kempton on Boxing Day, but has already been beaten by Dodging Bullets at
Cheltenham this season however with Geraghty more than likely booked you just
never know. Champagne Fever has
already been beaten by Jezki this season, but at last year’s festival Jezki didn’t
produce on the big stage but Champagne Fever pulled it out when it mattered
most and could be the best outside bet. The promising sort Chatterbox ran a good race at Newbury in December finishing second
to MTOY but with many horses from Severn Barrows entered in the race, jockey
bookings may be vital. Cause Of Causes
run in the Betfair didn’t do anything to impress me or suggest he will turn it
around to win this affair, I think he’ll once again be in the vapour trail of
the mighty ‘Tent’.
Conclusion:
With less than a week to go till the off I’m not one to be
backing short prices although I do think MTOY price is justified. With the poor
record of favourites winning this race, 6/4 just isn’t for me. But what does
push me back the other way is the lack of raw Champion Hurdle talent in the field
(judged on current form). Apart from MTOY I cannot see many of these going on
to challenge for Champion Hurdle next season however this may unearth a future
star. I have serious doubts about Jezki, and I we don’t know much about Un
Atout or Melodic Rendezvous’s ability in a big competitive race like this so
this swings me to Dodging Bullets. 9/1 is brilliant value for a horse that is
the second highest rated horse in the field, proven on all ground, won here twice
this year, beat half of this lot already, proved his class against the big boys
at Christmas and with Ruby more than likely taking the ride this is my idea of
value!
Advice: Dodging
Bullets EW 9/1 Betfred/Boylesports/Paddypower
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