Gold Cup Preview
What a cracking race the 2013
Gold Cup is building up to be. It’s the changing of the guard with the old boys
now gone it’s time for a new star. With the Hennessy Gold Cup, Denman Chase and
the King George now behind us, we can now pick our way through the field to
find a likely winner. On one side we have the English, on the other the Irish
with tidal bay and First Lieutenant the yard stick between the two.
Bobs Worth:
Bobs Worth is a justified favourite;
he loves it here at Cheltenham, a strong powerful chaser, proven to get up the
hill with previous victories including the RSA Chase in 2012 and Albert
Bartlett in 2011. This favouritism was backed up by a brilliant performance in
the Hennessy where he saw off Tidal Bay and First Lieutenant, although not
looking at his best, he grinded out a decent victory on reappearance, this form
alone and previous victories is enough for me to believe he has the beating of
these two. The only worry for me would
be that he goes to the GC having not run since. You could however look at this
from another point of view and say he will be the freshest of the horses that
go to post.
Silviniaco Conti:
Silviniaco Conti has really come
out of his shell this year with some high class performances after he faded
away as a novice with poor performances at Ascot and in the Feltham. A
comfortable victory in the Charlie Hall staked his claims to challenge for a GC
although the field wasn’t one of the strongest. His high class chaser status
was confirmed at Haydock Park as he easily saw off Long Run, leading the race
from start to finish and jumping with real fluency. Could this be the new
‘Star’ for Nicholls team down in Ditcheat? I certainly think so; I am a huge
fan and believe he was a big chance of bringing the gold cup back to the
Somerset Yard.
Long Run:
This takes me on to long Run
where I really don’t know where to start with this frustrating yet extremely
talented 8 year old that everybody loves to hate as he continues to travel
through fences rather than jump them. He
still leaves us thinking what happened to the Gold Cup winning long Run? We
continue to back him though as the statistics speak for themself; this horse
his never finished outside the top three throughout his English hurdle and
chase career, and at the age of 8 has already notched up a Gold Cup,
placed in another and been victorious in
two King George’s. The argument will continue to drag about who gets the mount
as many believe that with Barry Geraghty on board we will get to see the best
of this horse. But the fact of the matter is this is a Waley-Cohen family horse
and we will more than likely never know what could be.
Leading up to Last year’s Gold
Cup, preparation had been far from ideal. The Great Kauto Star had already
dished out two beatings, one in the Betfair chase and then again on Boxing Day
at Kempton Park in the King George. Clearly something wasn’t right and his
frailties shone through again as he nearly slipped up to a resurgent Burton
Port in the rearranged Denman Chase on his Cheltenham prep run. With Kauto
getting injured we all jumped back on the Long Run band wagon once again and he
went off as 7/4F but through more poor jumping was turned over this time by the
ill-fated Synchronised, in a race that I really believe he should of won in
what was a weak field.
Nicky Henderson claimed Long Run
had come back from the summer break even better and was getting back to the old
Gold Cup winner. This hope didn’t last long as Silviniaco Conti dug deep to win
the Betfair Chase to raise further doubt in the mind about future prospects.
The 2012 King George turned out to be a real slog at a muddy Kempton over
Christmas and Long Run was finally back to winning ways in a race that he was
expected to win in a field full of 2 and 2 ½ mile specialists.
There always seems to be more
negatives to Long Run than positives. He’s going to smack the odd fence for
sure; however he’s got the experience, determination and class to win another
Gold Cup, whilst still being only 8. If the ground comes up really soft and the
race turns out to be a hard grafted slog, then this can only favour the former
champ and as always I believe that he will be there or there abouts again by
the time they cross the line.
The Irish:
Sir Des Champs the current second
favourite looked a real class chaser when winning at last year’s festival
however this season hasn’t gone exactly to plan with the emergence of
Flemenstar. Some intriguing chases between
the pair have really put a spanner in the GC market. SDC clearly has the class
and know-how of Cheltenham with last year’s win in the Jewson followed up by
another success back home in Ireland in the Champion novice chase. My only
worrier is his jumping. Like Long Run he has the tendency to hit the odd fence,
and in a GC this can be crucial. He looks a real stayer on evidence, and can
only get better; the extra 4 furlongs may suit.
He is up there at the top of what Ireland has to offer and this leads me
on to Flemenstar.
There is no doubt that Flemenstar
is one of the top chasers around at the moment but this is simple for me; Peter
Casey’s 8 year old shouldn’t even go to the GC. He doesn’t have the stamina to
go three miles let alone 3m 4f up the Cheltenham hill. Enough said. (I would
love to see him give Sprinter Sacre a run for his money in the Queen mother
though)
Form Providers:
First Lieutenant and Tidal Bay
provide us with some form to consider linking the English racing to the
Irish. I’ll start with the former who on
return this season followed up last year’s 2nd in the RSA (won by
Bobs Worth) with another 2nd to Kauto Stone at Down Royal followed
by another podium finish this time at Newbury in the Hennessy (again won by
Bobs Worth). He is clearly getting better with more consistent performances and
surely it is only a matter of time before he wins a big one. Tidal Bay followed
up his win a Wetherby with a second in the Hennessy and so they both headed to
Ireland for the Lexus, and what a Lexus it was. Tidal Bay came storming home to
nick it at the death, ahead of First Lieutenant, Flemenstar and Sir Des Champs.
At 12 years old though, I can’t see this horse out staying the likes of Bobs
Worth or Long Run. A crack at the World Hurdle would be more suited I think.
And The Rest…
The Giant Bolster
continues to be on and off after another second at the weekend following a
failure in the King George. He showed potential last year finishing second but hasn’t
been able to push on this season and I can’t see him posing any danger to the
top four. Captain Chris has had a
brilliant season so far after beating a poor Finians Rainbow at Ascot followed
by a real slog with Long Run in the King George. For him to have any chance
here he’s going to need conditions on his side once again. The same applies for
Cape Tribulation who dug out a hard
fort victory over former champion Imperial
Commander in the Argento. I’m not convinced that any of these four will be
good enough to win this year though, however for you each way backers there is plenty
of value here.
To conclude:
Given the form from the season so far Bobs Worth is going to
take all the beating here. He ticks all the boxes and comes here fresh; it wouldn’t
surprise me if we have a winning favourite on our hands. However at 3/1 he’s
not my idea of value. Tidal Bay saw off the best Ireland has to offer and Bobs
Worth dealt with Tidal Bay when not at his best.
Long Run is really going to have to reproduce his old form
to win this; Silviniaco Conti has got the beating of him all day long on current
form. He stays, jumps fluently and really will be a match for Henderson’s
leading contender BW.
First Lieutenant at double figures (12/1) is my idea of
value. A brilliant chaser who is still getting better, he’s been up there in
every race this season so far without winning and I don’t see why he won’t be a
contender this time.
Advise: Silvinaco Conti 5/1
First
Lieutenant 12/1 EW
Ante Post Prices
(11/2/13)
Bobs Worth 3/1
Sir Des Champs 9/2
Silviniaco Conti 5/1
Long Run 6/1
First Lieutenant 12/1
The Giant Bolster 16/1
Captain Chris 20/1
Imperial Commander 20/1
Katenko 25/1
