Cheltenham Day 1 Preview

Cheltenham Day 1 Preview

It’s finally here, the day all national hunt fans eagerly await like kids at Christmas, opinions can finally be put to one side and the best jumps horses meet at the home of NH racing to do battle on the biggest stage of all. This is Cheltenham!

The Supreme Novice kicks us off and what a competitive race to start. My Tent Or Yours leads the market after his impressive display at Newbury but at best price 2/1 (Stan James) in a race that favourites don’t tend to go well in I’ll be looking elsewhere. The Irish selections are interesting as we don’t really know how good they are as the standard of Irish racing is not up to what we see here in England, in small fields and very average competition I can’t be having any of them. Dodging Bullets ticks all the boxes, and he’ll be my pick if MTOY were to be turned over. Champagne Fever also presents value although he has now been backed into 8/1 (Coral) with the booking of Ruby Walsh. (For further preview check out our Supreme Novice Preview) http://jewtipsofficial.blogspot.co.uk/2013/03/2013-supreme-novice-hurdle-preview.html

In the Arkle I can’t see past Simonsig. The horse has been talked up so much over the last few weeks, with people talking him up in the same breath as Sprinter Sacre. You can’t ignore what Barry Geraghty says about him from schooling sessions, he stays, jumps and got one of the best cruising speeds out there. I think the race will place exactly into his hands; Overturn will go a good pace early on before struggling on the soft ground and stiff fences before Simonsig pounces 2 out and cruises on to a 5+ length victory.

The 2.40 presents the first handicap and a tough one to crack with at least 10 potential winners in the field. The race doesn’t tend to favour horses carrying top weight, and with the soft ground this season I’ll be happy to stick by that. Our Mick the market favourite and may go close again after last years 3^rd but as we’ve seen before his jumping is very poor and at that price ill happily stick a red line through him. Loch Ba, Fruity O’Rooney and Merry King present value with all being in good form on soft ground and all carrying low weight. You could drop a pin to find a winner here but ill cross a line through Loch Ba as the standard of horses he’s beaten aren’t as good as the other two. Fruity O’Rooney was 2^nd to Katenko last time out (Nadiya De La Vega 3^rd) and at this weight and soft ground, he’s a brilliant EW bet. The same applies for Merry King who came 2^nd by a nose to Cannington Brook at Haydock on his last appearance which was also on heavy ground and over a 3 mile trip. Both are brilliant each way bets but I’ll say it again, this isn’t a race you want to be throwing to much cash at.

The feature of day 1 is the Champion Hurdle with favourite Hurricane Fly returning to try and regain his crown. I don’t know if he’s going to be good enough even at his best. The soft ground is now playing into his hands but I can’t see anything to suggest the form from last season will be reversed. I really fancied Grandouet a month ago, but with less than ideal preparation and a question about fitness Im now tempted to look elsewhere although Binocular won his CH with poor prep and at a price of 8/1 (Grandouet’s current price) That leaves Zarkander and Rock On Ruby; once again there isn’t much to choose but on the soft ground and the fact he’s already beaten Rock On Ruby this season I’ll go with Zarkander. (For further preview check out our Champion Novice Preview) http://jewtipsofficial.blogspot.co.uk/2013/02/2013-champion-hurdle-preview.html

The Cross Country is not a race I’ll get involved in, keep your money in your pocket or head to the bar!

The Mares hurdle could end up being a parade for Quevega. Looking through the field I just can’t see anything getting anywhere near her. Mullins knows exactly what he’s doing keeping her fresh just for this single race a season so sit back and watch a masterclass.

The Lucky last is another tough handicap with all 20 horses only 8lbs apart. The stats will tell you that a horses last run leading into this one is an important factor with every previous winner finishing in the top 2 last time out. With horses on both chasing debut and handicap debut it’s a bit of a lottery but if you fancy a bet The Druids Nephew presents EW value at 7/1 having previously beat Grandioso (now a Grade 2 winner), he stays and will love the sticky mud tomorrow!

Tuesdays Tips:

1.30 Supreme: MTOY 2/1 and Dodging Bullets 9/1 (E/W) 4 + 2 PTS IWAC

2.05 Arkle: Simonsig 3/1 (Boylesport new customers) 5 PTS NAP

2.40 JLT: Merry King 7/1 + Fruity O’Rooney 9/1 (Both E/W) 0.5 PTS

3.20 Champion Hurdle: Zarkander 7/2 2 PTS

4.00 Cross Country: No Bet.

4.40 Mares: Quevega 4/6 (Potential double value) 5 PTS NB

5.15 Novice H’cap: The Druids Nephew 7/1 (E/W) 1 PTS

*All opinions our own