Cheltenham Day 4 Preview

Cheltenham Day 4 Preview – Gold Cup Day

A day which promised to deliver so much ended up being a real howler. I think most people really struggled from the reaction on twitter today and its hardly surprising looking at the price of the winners, but that’s Cheltenham for you! No favourites came in and the bookies are once again laughing with some huge price winners on day 3! But the headlines will be dominated by the injuries to Davy Russell and JT McNamara and all our thoughts are with them after today.

A cracker to start us off and I can’t pick between the first 3 in the market. The more I look at this race the more confusing it gets. Last week I had Far West at the top but the way the Nicholls yard is going this week I’m not so confident now. Our Conor won impressively last time out beating the Mullins pair Diakali and Blood Cotil and has been talked up a fair bit this week. The same goes for the lightly raced Rolling Star who we don’t know much about, but I do know there are high hopes for this sort from Severn Barrows. There’s no value in the race for me so I’ll be taking a back seat here.

The County hurdle is another big handicap race and on the form Cotton Mill surely has a chance but as we know from the winners this week it’s not as simple as that. He was the best of the rest in the Betfair Hurdle where the impressive MTOY pulled away at Newbury.

In the Albert Bartlett At Fishers Cross will be my first good bet of the day. Backed into 3/1 now, hopefully his class will shine as it did on his last appearance where he saw off The New One at Haydock. The only minor worry would be the ground as Rebecca Curtis was hoping for a drop of rain pre-festival.

And so to the main event of the week; The Cheltenham Gold Cup, and what a race we’re in for. Bobs Worth heads the market at the short price of 5/2 and has been kept fresh for this all season. Given the form so far BW is going to take all the beating here. He ticks all the boxes and comes here fresh; it wouldn’t surprise me if we have a winning favourite on our hands. Tidal Bay saw off the best Ireland has to offer and Bobs Worth dealt with Tidal Bay when not at his best. However at 5/2 he’s not my idea of value. Long Run is really going to have to reproduce his old form to win this; Silviniaco Conti has got the beating of him all day long on current form. He stays, jumps fluently and really will be a match for Henderson’s leading contender BW. The ground drying out will be a plus for all three horses and I think it will come down to who stays on up the hill. Sir Des Champs and Bobs Worth both love it here but I think the former will see it out the best tomorrow and cap off a wonderful week for the Mullins yard! (For further gold cup preview check out http://jewtipsofficial.blogspot.co.uk/2013/02/2013-betfred-gold-cup-preview.html (ante post from 11/2/13))

Out of the last 3 handicaps I’ve got a couple of EW chances but based on what we’ve seen this week confidence is at a low, finding a winner is proving tough and the bookies are well back on top now!  Gevrey Chambertin should go well in the 4:40 although he’s carrying top weight, and in the lucky last Rody, Ulck Du Lin and Shooters wood are in with a chance.

Best of luck and let’s hope for a better day !

Selections:

2:05: Cotton Mill EW

2:40: At Fishers Cross

3:20: Sir Des Champs and Silviniaco Conti EW (advised 11/2/13 on blog) 

TAKE ADVANTAGE OF FREE BETS AND OFFERS IN THE MORNING

Cheltenham Day 3 Preview

Cheltenham Day 3 Preview

Day 2 Review

A magical Day at Cheltenham where the ‘steeple chaser from the gods’ was crowned the King in the Queen Mother, as he cruised round Prestbury Park in what looked more like a schooling session. This performance really put into perspective how good this horse really is.

In the opener the favourite Back In Focus continued the winning run for the Mullins team in what turned out to be a real gruelling slog. The Neptune was a bit of the unknown and Ponte Alexandre really couldn’t stick the pace, as The New One pulled away up the hill, proving Cheltenham form is vital here. On to one of the worst RSA’s in years and both the market leaders didn’t live up to the pre-race hype as Boston Bob fell at the last and Unioniste never travelled after colliding with the barrier on the way to the start. Davy Russell pulled it out though, to take victory on board Lord Windermere. The Coral Cup through up no surprises for a punter as outsider Medinas took the spoils; mentioned last night on the blog and that is why I don’t bet on races like this, anything can happen as proved right there. Unfortunately I missed the last couple of races but no luck for us on our selections today, and that’s exactly what can happen here at Cheltenham. Hope you were all on the Sprinter Sacre offer though! On to tomorrow!

…………………………………………………………………………………………………………

Day 3 Preview

We’re half way through now and its World Hurdle day up next, but I’ll be looking elsewhere for the value!

We kick off with the Jewson and to say I really fancy Dynaste is an understatement. I just can’t see anything in the field that’s going to beat him. NAP of the week!

In the 2:05 we’ve got another strong bet in Sam Winner. Arguably the best handicapped horse at the festival this year, Paul Nicholls described his mark as ‘a gift from god’ and at 4/1 with Betfred there’s plenty of value to get stuck into.

The Ryanair is building up to be a fascinating affair, and in First Lieutenant (current market leader 11/4) we have a justified favourite. He’s been there or there abouts all season without winning, against plenty of top class horses including Bobs Worth, Flemenstar, Tidal Bay and Sir Des Champs, however these trips were all 3 mile plus. Cue Card the current second favourite isn’t far behind First Lieutenant at 3/1 but for me is a bit short for a horse which I see as a 2 miler and on this ground at that price I can’t be having him. Riverside Theatre (5/1) the defending champion comes here fresh having ran only once this season. How he won last year I will never know, but the more the ground dries out the better chance he will have. Champion Court is an interesting one after his impressive display at Kempton on Boxing Day he followed up with a poor run when dropped back in trip. Albertas Run and Menorah present some EW value with the former being prepared solely for this race. Menorah has been in the top 3 in all his performances this season with the most impressive being his 3^rd in the Betfair Chase.

The World Hurdle presents a totally different kettle of fish to previous years with the absence of Big Bucks, and it’s not a race I’m willing to have a bet on. I’m not sure Oscar Whisky stays the trip and with the ground drying out Reve De Sivola’s chances are getting smaller. This leaves a number of different chances on good ground from what we don’t have much form on this season.

In the Bryne Plate look no further than Ballynagour. I’m not normally one for the Handicaps but today we have some decent prices and this sort has a big chance for the Pipe yard.

Superduty as posted in our Cheltenham double (now a single) runs in the 4:40 and at 5/1 with William Hill get on board now!

Thursday Selections:

1:30: Dynaste NAP

2:05: Sam Winner NB

2:40: Currently waiting for an offer through lack of value in race

3:20: NO BET

4:00: Ballynagour

4:40: Superduty EW

*All opinions our own... 

Cheltenham Day 2 Preview

Cheltenham Day 2 Preview

On to day 2 and with the bookies on the ropes after day 1, there may be some decent offers flying around in the morning to lure the vulnerable in. After a decent first day it’s important to ride that wave, and keep ahead of the old enemy, don’t get drawn in and play it safe tomorrow, there’s money to be made on day 3! The Queen Mother is the feature with the mighty Sprinter Sacre. 

The John Oaksey National Hunt Chase kicks us off and what a slog this could turn out to be. Over 4 miles on soft ground a real stayer is vital and picking through this lot is not something I want to be gambling on. Back In Focus is the current market leader at best price 3/1 (William Hill) and with the ground softening he has to be in with a sniff, but at a low price already and making his Cheltenham debut I’d look elsewhere if you’re interested in this marathon. If you insist on a punt, Godsmejudge and Emperor’s Choice present the value at pretty high prices, having consistently run well over longer distances and soft ground.

The 2:05 brings up a classic hurdle encounter between the highly thought of Irish trained Ponte Alexandre, Nigel Twiston-Davies’s The New One and Jonjo O’Neil’s Taquin Du Seuil. Theres not a lot to be said about the favourite as he’s only raced three times (won all 3); all we can do is trust Mullins on this one. You don’t just chuck any old horse in a G1 on debut! The New one who beat MTOY last spring has bolted up pretty well this season before succumbing to At Fishers Cross last time out. I don’t think the ground will be an issue but the bug currently at the Twiston-Davies yard might be. TDS has been in impressive form as well, and you can’t ignore that 2^nd to MTOY at Ascot in November. We’re in for a cracker and I’m finding it tough to pick between the three. Chatterbox is my idea of EW value at 10/1, a horse in good form and gave MTOY a good run for his money last season.

The RSA Chase at 2:40 is one of the weakest we’ve seen for a few years now. With Dynaste now going for the Jewson, on paper Unioniste and Boston Bob should battle it out. If you backed Unioniste as advised last week when the RSA preview blog was released (6/1) you’ll now be licking your lips. Now at 3/1 7/2 the value has gone I think and Boston Bob will be my pick alongside Unioniste (ante post). For further info check out the RSA preview: http://jewtipsofficial.blogspot.co.uk/2013/03/2013-rsa-chase.html

So to the showpiece and look no further than Sprinter Sacre; enough said. For Further info check out the Champion Chase Preview: http://jewtipsofficial.blogspot.co.uk/2013/03/2013-queen-mother-champion-chase.html

Onto the three handicaps and I’m not going to get heavily involved here as like yesterday there are some tough ones to crack. The Coral Cup could end up with 28 runners! Over the years this has been a punters nightmare and once again looking at what’s on offer I would suggest keeping the money in your pocket and thank me later.

In the Fred Winter ill have a little bit each way on Saphir Du Rheu. I know the Nicholls yard is expecting a big run here and with the form Ruby Walsh is in that’s good enough for me.

In the lucky last Union Dues the current 2^nd favourite is at a decent price should bring some more each way value. Tipped as part of our Festival Double, off 11st 5lb and the Mullins Yard flying, this horse shows a lot of promise so roll the dice and get on board!

Wednesday Tips:

1:30 Oaksey:        No bet

2:05 Neptune:       Backing: Ponte Alexandre 4 PTS NB

     EW: Taquin Du Seuil EW 2PTS

     EW: Chatterbox EW 0.5 PTS

2:40 RSA:             Backing: Boston Bob 2 PTS

                             EW: Unioniste (advised 6/1 last week) 2 PTS

3:20 QMCC:        Sprinter Sacre (Evens with Coral signup offer) 6 PTS NAP

4:00 CC:               No bet

4:40 FW:              Saphir Du Rheu EW 1 PTS

5:15 CB:               Union Dues IWAC 2 PTS

Check for further updates on twitter in the morning for news on offers and potential further bets.

*All opinions our own

Day 1 Review - Cheltenham

Cheltenham Day 1 Review

Well there we have it, what a start the festival, and what a day for Jewtips! In the battle of punter vs bookmaker I think the punter will happily claim the first round here with Simonsig, Hurricane Fly, and Quevega all winning favourites. The main question today came in the Champion Hurdle and would Hurricane Fly be good enough at the age of 9; the answer was a resounding yes! We’ll claim big profits from Simonsig and Quevega (NAP & NB) and each way placing of Fruity O’Rooney.

In the Supreme the money kept coming for ‘The Tent’ but in a favourite’s graveyard the most backed horse of the morning Champagne Fever led from start to finish and saw it out best to take the spoils under Ruby Walsh. MTOY and Jezki both looked to be closing in but in the end neither had the speed or stamina to overtake the Fever! Our EW tip Dodging Bullets didn’t have the speed or class to keep up with these which was our main worry but as mentioned last night on the blog Champagne Fever was the best pick of the rest!

On to the Arkle and our NAP Simonsig lived up to the hype bringing in £80 profit (Boylesports offer). He just looked a class above the rest winning when not jumping at his best. Last night on the blog I mentioned how I thought the race would be run and it turned out exactly that. Overturn couldn’t stick the pace as Simonsig reeled him in and took his chance when Overturn crashed into the fence 3 out. Comparisons to Sprinter Sacre will be made but I don’t think he’s in that bracket yet. Winning NAP for us thank you very much Boylesports.

In the JLT it was bottom weight Golden Chieftain that ploughed up the hill and pulled away from the rest. Our Mick ran a cracker in second showing his class but I think the handicapper will claim victory with that one. Our small each way tip Fruity O’Rooney brought in a small profit if you were on with Boylesports paying 5 places.

The Champion hurdle served up an absolute classic and Hurricane Fly summed up once and for all he is still the best Hurdler out there and last year was just a one off! He looked like he was struggling at the top of the hill, but clawed his way back into the race when not travelling well showing class is permanent and although Rock On Ruby arguably ran a better race than last year it just wasn’t enough this time around. After regaining his crown is there another championship left in him?

Wow, just wow! What can you say that hasn’t been said about Quevega? So much ground needing to be made up as they turned for home, it looked like the dream was over but in the end the result was inevitable, she makes it 5 years in a row and makes festival history!

A classic handicap to finish, as noted last night it was going to be tough but Radjani Express carrying top weight saw them off under Sam Waley-Cohen. Perfect example why we don’t like handicaps at Cheltenham, it’s a lottery as shown today with two races and winners at 20/1 and 16/1. On to tomorrow for round two!

Preview coming later…

Cheltenham Day 1 Preview

Cheltenham Day 1 Preview

It’s finally here, the day all national hunt fans eagerly await like kids at Christmas, opinions can finally be put to one side and the best jumps horses meet at the home of NH racing to do battle on the biggest stage of all. This is Cheltenham!

The Supreme Novice kicks us off and what a competitive race to start. My Tent Or Yours leads the market after his impressive display at Newbury but at best price 2/1 (Stan James) in a race that favourites don’t tend to go well in I’ll be looking elsewhere. The Irish selections are interesting as we don’t really know how good they are as the standard of Irish racing is not up to what we see here in England, in small fields and very average competition I can’t be having any of them. Dodging Bullets ticks all the boxes, and he’ll be my pick if MTOY were to be turned over. Champagne Fever also presents value although he has now been backed into 8/1 (Coral) with the booking of Ruby Walsh. (For further preview check out our Supreme Novice Preview) http://jewtipsofficial.blogspot.co.uk/2013/03/2013-supreme-novice-hurdle-preview.html

In the Arkle I can’t see past Simonsig. The horse has been talked up so much over the last few weeks, with people talking him up in the same breath as Sprinter Sacre. You can’t ignore what Barry Geraghty says about him from schooling sessions, he stays, jumps and got one of the best cruising speeds out there. I think the race will place exactly into his hands; Overturn will go a good pace early on before struggling on the soft ground and stiff fences before Simonsig pounces 2 out and cruises on to a 5+ length victory.

The 2.40 presents the first handicap and a tough one to crack with at least 10 potential winners in the field. The race doesn’t tend to favour horses carrying top weight, and with the soft ground this season I’ll be happy to stick by that. Our Mick the market favourite and may go close again after last years 3^rd but as we’ve seen before his jumping is very poor and at that price ill happily stick a red line through him. Loch Ba, Fruity O’Rooney and Merry King present value with all being in good form on soft ground and all carrying low weight. You could drop a pin to find a winner here but ill cross a line through Loch Ba as the standard of horses he’s beaten aren’t as good as the other two. Fruity O’Rooney was 2^nd to Katenko last time out (Nadiya De La Vega 3^rd) and at this weight and soft ground, he’s a brilliant EW bet. The same applies for Merry King who came 2^nd by a nose to Cannington Brook at Haydock on his last appearance which was also on heavy ground and over a 3 mile trip. Both are brilliant each way bets but I’ll say it again, this isn’t a race you want to be throwing to much cash at.

The feature of day 1 is the Champion Hurdle with favourite Hurricane Fly returning to try and regain his crown. I don’t know if he’s going to be good enough even at his best. The soft ground is now playing into his hands but I can’t see anything to suggest the form from last season will be reversed. I really fancied Grandouet a month ago, but with less than ideal preparation and a question about fitness Im now tempted to look elsewhere although Binocular won his CH with poor prep and at a price of 8/1 (Grandouet’s current price) That leaves Zarkander and Rock On Ruby; once again there isn’t much to choose but on the soft ground and the fact he’s already beaten Rock On Ruby this season I’ll go with Zarkander. (For further preview check out our Champion Novice Preview) http://jewtipsofficial.blogspot.co.uk/2013/02/2013-champion-hurdle-preview.html

The Cross Country is not a race I’ll get involved in, keep your money in your pocket or head to the bar!

The Mares hurdle could end up being a parade for Quevega. Looking through the field I just can’t see anything getting anywhere near her. Mullins knows exactly what he’s doing keeping her fresh just for this single race a season so sit back and watch a masterclass.

The Lucky last is another tough handicap with all 20 horses only 8lbs apart. The stats will tell you that a horses last run leading into this one is an important factor with every previous winner finishing in the top 2 last time out. With horses on both chasing debut and handicap debut it’s a bit of a lottery but if you fancy a bet The Druids Nephew presents EW value at 7/1 having previously beat Grandioso (now a Grade 2 winner), he stays and will love the sticky mud tomorrow!

Tuesdays Tips:

1.30 Supreme: MTOY 2/1 and Dodging Bullets 9/1 (E/W) 4 + 2 PTS IWAC

2.05 Arkle: Simonsig 3/1 (Boylesport new customers) 5 PTS NAP

2.40 JLT: Merry King 7/1 + Fruity O’Rooney 9/1 (Both E/W) 0.5 PTS

3.20 Champion Hurdle: Zarkander 7/2 2 PTS

4.00 Cross Country: No Bet.

4.40 Mares: Quevega 4/6 (Potential double value) 5 PTS NB

5.15 Novice H’cap: The Druids Nephew 7/1 (E/W) 1 PTS

*All opinions our own

2013 Supreme Novice Hurdle Preview

Supreme Novice Hurdle

The first race the festival will be greeted by the famous Cheltenham roar as they come out on to the track and what a competitive renewal we have to kick off what will be brilliant festival. The market leader My Tent Or Yours is now a short favourite after some excellent displays this season but history and statistics don’t lie and this race doesn’t tend to be won by a favourite.

My Tent Or Yours

You certainly cannot mock what MTOY has achieved this season, the way he won the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury a few weeks ago was quite stunning in what is normally a very competitive race. This was far from it, as he destroyed the field with complete ease and subsequently his price was cut drastically into what is now a 6/4 favourite, which I think is a fair price for a horse which the champion jockey described early season as his most exciting prospect. Favourites generally don’t do to well in the supreme but I currently cannot see anything to suggest there is a better horse in the field.

Jezki

Looking at Jezki’s form in brief would suggest he has a big chance here; however in further detail he doesn’t strike me as a Cheltenham horse. All his best form comes on soft ground in small fields over in Ireland where the competitiveness of racing is not what it is over here in England. He hasn’t beaten anything of any real calibre bar the once promising Champagne Fever. The two races where he has been competing against more than 12 horses he finished 8^th and 5^th. Last time at Cheltenham he didn’t show up, and was well beaten on good ground. Even if the ground came up real soft this year he may have a sniff but then I’m not sure he would be up for a hard fought slog! He’s what I describe as a small field bully.

Un Atout

Another talented Irish trained Horse at a low price, but this time there is more promise. Willie Mullins isn’t normally one to give away what races his horses are aiming for however he has been adamant about Un Atout’s prospects in this year’s Supreme for some time now. A 100% record this season cannot be ignored but from what we have seen so far all his wins have been slogs in the mud on heavy ground around Ireland. Another worry for me is that Mullins has also said he sees him as a future chaser, and from what I have seen so far he certainly jumps like one. On that note I just don’t think he’s going to have the speed to win the supreme this year.

Dodging Bullets

Paul Nicholls leading contender is officially the second highest rated horse in the field and has already won here at Cheltenham twice this season beating the promising River Maigue in November on good ground. At Christmas he went to Kempton (heavy ground) and finished a respectable third to the ill-fated Darlan in what was really a champion hurdle trial. Cinders and Ashes and Countrywide Flame (both Champion hurdle contenders this year) were well beaten and this form alone for me just proved how good Dodging Bullets is; in my opinion an underrated horse.

Melodic Rendezvous

The last year for Melodic Rendezvous has been pretty much from zero to hero for the team down in Somerset with all involved stunned at what this horse has achieved. He keeps improving and most importantly keeps winning. His maiden grade 1 victory came at Sandown a few months ago, he then went on to beat Puffin Billy at Exeter although it was said Puffin Billy was lame after the race. My only worry is his form very much reminds me of Jezki; all in small fields on soft ground however the step up and better ground may suit him even more.   

And the rest…

River Maigue won impressively at Kempton on Boxing Day, but has already been beaten by Dodging Bullets at Cheltenham this season however with Geraghty more than likely booked you just never know. Champagne Fever has already been beaten by Jezki this season, but at last year’s festival Jezki didn’t produce on the big stage but Champagne Fever pulled it out when it mattered most and could be the best outside bet. The promising sort Chatterbox ran a good race at Newbury in December finishing second to MTOY but with many horses from Severn Barrows entered in the race, jockey bookings may be vital. Cause Of Causes run in the Betfair didn’t do anything to impress me or suggest he will turn it around to win this affair, I think he’ll once again be in the vapour trail of the mighty ‘Tent’.  

Conclusion:

With less than a week to go till the off I’m not one to be backing short prices although I do think MTOY price is justified. With the poor record of favourites winning this race, 6/4 just isn’t for me. But what does push me back the other way is the lack of raw Champion Hurdle talent in the field (judged on current form). Apart from MTOY I cannot see many of these going on to challenge for Champion Hurdle next season however this may unearth a future star. I have serious doubts about Jezki, and I we don’t know much about Un Atout or Melodic Rendezvous’s ability in a big competitive race like this so this swings me to Dodging Bullets. 9/1 is brilliant value for a horse that is the second highest rated horse in the field, proven on all ground, won here twice this year, beat half of this lot already, proved his class against the big boys at Christmas and with Ruby more than likely taking the ride this is my idea of value!

Advice: Dodging Bullets EW 9/1 Betfred/Boylesports/Paddypower

2013 RSA Chase Preview

RSA Chase

In a race which doesn’t look to how have the competitive edge it did at last year’s festival, this will hopefully be the race where our best bet of Cheltenham 2013 will come up, however the debate still goes on as to which race Dynaste will run in; RSA or Jewson.

If Dynaste were to go to the RSA some may question whether he will stay, but I am in no doubt what so ever that this is a class horse and the extra trip will only suit him more; look at how he ran at Kempton on boxing day in the mud. He ticks all the boxes, travels well, jumps well and goes on all ground and so far very consistent. One lingering thought which will always be in the back of a punters head though is the dark shadow of Grand Crus…

Boston Bob is an interesting sort; you cannot question his record however every time I watch him he just doesn’t please the eye. His jumping looks like he is trying to take the fence with him but there is no doubt he stays well. His most recent performance really summed it up as he clouted the odd fence and fell back in the field looking well beaten as they turned for home at Leopardstown but he once again slogged it out and stormed home to win by a nose hair.

There is no doubt that Unioniste has immense talent and I know he is very highly thought of down at Ditcheat but I just can’t be having him ahead of Dynaste, however I will be having an EW on the Nicholls horse with the doubt about where Dynaste is heading.  

Hadrians Approach has one win under his belt from his four races this season but the form adds up as he was then defeated twice; firstly by Dynaste then by Unioniste at Newbury a few weeks ago, although he did come very close.

Advise: Regardless of what race Dynaste goes in; the RSA or the Jewson he is my idea of a festival banker. Finding value is hard enough with only a week until the festival but it wouldn’t surprise if this horse is at evens or shorter on the day. Take the price while you can and load them canons!

Unioniste at 6/1 is cracking EW value as we may see Dynaste go to the Jewson, if so Unioniste price will be cut and without doubt backed into a price of around 3’s. Take it while you can!

Dynaste 5/2  Paddypower (RSA)

Dynaste 3/1 William Hill (Jewson)

Unioniste 6/1 EW Ladbrokes