2013 Champion Hurdle Preview

Champion Hurdle

The 2013 Champion Hurdle is the highlight of the opening day at the Festival and this year will be one of the best we have seen for a while with no less than 3 previous winners going to post (Hurricane Fly, Rock on Ruby and  Binocular).  We have the best from England against the great Fly from Ireland. If you’d of asked me a month ago as to who I thought would win the race I would of almost certainly of fancied Darlan after his impressive display at Kempton however unfortunately he is no longer with us and the market has taken a dramatic twist with Hurricane Fly once again a short odds favourite.

Hurricane Fly:

Willie Mullins 9 year old is now favourite for this year’s Champion Hurdle however he wouldn’t be my favourite to regain his crown. There is no doubt that HF is one of the best Hurdlers we have seen since Istabraq but at 9 years old, has he still got it in him to win another champion hurdle? Not many over the age of eight come back here and win, only seven since 1945. My other worry would be the competitiveness of Irish racing. The fields he has been racing in all seem fairly average and quite small compared to what he will be up against at Cheltenham. You could look at it in two ways; either he is that good that he makes the rest look so poor, or his opponents just aren’t good enough to make him work; I’ll stick with the latter. Go Native would be the only exception, he seemed to be challenging before falling at the last at Punchestown in November. Willie Mullins however is of the opinion that ‘The Fly’ is back to the form he was 2 years ago and is ready to regain his title here, but I’m not so sure.

Rock On Ruby:

Last year’s winner Rock On Ruby comes here looking to win back to back Champion Hurdles for the first time since Hardy Eustace in 2005. Can he do it? A month ago I would of said no, however with no Darlan and debates about Grandouet’s fitness maybe he can now. The yard is going well and Harry Fry seems really positive about him. He convincingly turned over the Fly here last year however some will say ‘The Fly’ wasn’t at his best and was never going. He came 3^rd behind Zarkander and Grandouet in the International at Cheltenham although he was conceding 4lb, before comfortable seeing of Countrywide Flame in his prep run.

Grandouet:

We haven’t seen much of Grandouet over the past few years but what we have seen has been fairly impressive. He beat Overturn in the 2011 International by 4 lengths before finishing 2^nd to Zarkander in the 2012 International (Rock on Ruby 3^rd) but hasn’t been seen since.  A few weeks ago there was an injury worry causing havoc on the markets however Henderson has come out and said he will go to Cheltenham but miss his prep run. This is a worry as we don’t know the exact problem but we do know that Henderson’s horses don’t run unless they are 100%, proven by the lack of Race course appearances made by his big guns this season.

Zarkander:

Paul Nicholls leading contender has improved tremendously this season coming into the festival undefeated, although all of his form has been on heavy ground.  He won very impressively at Wincanton on reappearance carrying top weight. The form would suggest that he has got the beating of both Rock On Ruby and Grandouet after winning the international at Cheltenham however the jockey is an issue though; Surprisingly Daryl Jacob took the first ride of the season before Ruby took over for the International then Daryl was back at Wincanton a few weeks ago. Ruby is surely going to ride Hurricane Fly as he is the best horse in the race on paper, which means Jacob will pilot Zarkander and you can’t help but think this weakens his chances.

And The Rest…

I wouldn’t expect Binocular to challenge for this although he’s won it before. He didn’t look to impressive when chasing Hurricane Fly home at Leopardstown. Countrywide Flame is a higher price than Cinders and Ashes when he has had the beating of him all season. It has been said that Cinders and Ashes doesn’t go well on heavy ground which is what we have seen him in on his two appearances this year however he won twice over Christmas 2011/2012 on heavy ground, maybe there’s more is to come after his impressive victory at the festival in 2012 where he beat the ill-fated Darlan. Cotton Mill came 2^nd to the brilliant My Tent Or Yours in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury a few weeks ago, and having not been outside the top 3 since November 2011 this may give some EW value.

Conclusion:

Favourite Hurricane Fly is going to have to be at his very best to win this, and then I don’t know if his best is going to be good enough this year, that said 13/8 is a shocking price. Rock On Ruby looks in fine touch, as does Zarkander although the Jockey is an issue. I’m leaning towards the class of Grandouet (supposing there is no fitness issue) with Geraghty on Board he’s my pick of the three. I believe he’s got the beating of Rock On Ruby and Zarkander, although there is hardly anything to choose between them with plenty of value to choose from. We’re in for a cracker…

Advise:                 Grandouet 13/2

Odds as of 28/2/13 (Paddy giving money back if Hurricane Fly wins)

Hurricane Fly                    13/8

Zarkander                            9/2

Rock on Ruby                      6/1

Grandouet                          13/2

Binocular                            10/1

Cinders and Ashes             12/1

Countrywide Flame            14/1

Cotton Mill                         25/1

(all views are our own)

2013 Betfred Gold Cup Preview

Gold Cup Preview

What a cracking race the 2013 Gold Cup is building up to be. It’s the changing of the guard with the old boys now gone it’s time for a new star. With the Hennessy Gold Cup, Denman Chase and the King George now behind us, we can now pick our way through the field to find a likely winner. On one side we have the English, on the other the Irish with tidal bay and First Lieutenant the yard stick between the two.

Bobs Worth:

Bobs Worth is a justified favourite; he loves it here at Cheltenham, a strong powerful chaser, proven to get up the hill with previous victories including the RSA Chase in 2012 and Albert Bartlett in 2011. This favouritism was backed up by a brilliant performance in the Hennessy where he saw off Tidal Bay and First Lieutenant, although not looking at his best, he grinded out a decent victory on reappearance, this form alone and previous victories is enough for me to believe he has the beating of these two.  The only worry for me would be that he goes to the GC having not run since. You could however look at this from another point of view and say he will be the freshest of the horses that go to post.

Silviniaco Conti:

Silviniaco Conti has really come out of his shell this year with some high class performances after he faded away as a novice with poor performances at Ascot and in the Feltham. A comfortable victory in the Charlie Hall staked his claims to challenge for a GC although the field wasn’t one of the strongest. His high class chaser status was confirmed at Haydock Park as he easily saw off Long Run, leading the race from start to finish and jumping with real fluency. Could this be the new ‘Star’ for Nicholls team down in Ditcheat? I certainly think so; I am a huge fan and believe he was a big chance of bringing the gold cup back to the Somerset Yard.

Long Run:

This takes me on to long Run where I really don’t know where to start with this frustrating yet extremely talented 8 year old that everybody loves to hate as he continues to travel through fences rather than jump them.  He still leaves us thinking what happened to the Gold Cup winning long Run? We continue to back him though as the statistics speak for themself; this horse his never finished outside the top three throughout his English hurdle and chase career, and at the age of 8 has already notched up a Gold Cup, placed  in another and been victorious in two King George’s. The argument will continue to drag about who gets the mount as many believe that with Barry Geraghty on board we will get to see the best of this horse. But the fact of the matter is this is a Waley-Cohen family horse and we will more than likely never know what could be.

Leading up to Last year’s Gold Cup, preparation had been far from ideal. The Great Kauto Star had already dished out two beatings, one in the Betfair chase and then again on Boxing Day at Kempton Park in the King George. Clearly something wasn’t right and his frailties shone through again as he nearly slipped up to a resurgent Burton Port in the rearranged Denman Chase on his Cheltenham prep run. With Kauto getting injured we all jumped back on the Long Run band wagon once again and he went off as 7/4F but through more poor jumping was turned over this time by the ill-fated Synchronised, in a race that I really believe he should of won in what was a weak field.

Nicky Henderson claimed Long Run had come back from the summer break even better and was getting back to the old Gold Cup winner. This hope didn’t last long as Silviniaco Conti dug deep to win the Betfair Chase to raise further doubt in the mind about future prospects. The 2012 King George turned out to be a real slog at a muddy Kempton over Christmas and Long Run was finally back to winning ways in a race that he was expected to win in a field full of 2 and 2 ½ mile specialists. 

There always seems to be more negatives to Long Run than positives. He’s going to smack the odd fence for sure; however he’s got the experience, determination and class to win another Gold Cup, whilst still being only 8. If the ground comes up really soft and the race turns out to be a hard grafted slog, then this can only favour the former champ and as always I believe that he will be there or there abouts again by the time they cross the line.

The Irish:

Sir Des Champs the current second favourite looked a real class chaser when winning at last year’s festival however this season hasn’t gone exactly to plan with the emergence of Flemenstar.  Some intriguing chases between the pair have really put a spanner in the GC market. SDC clearly has the class and know-how of Cheltenham with last year’s win in the Jewson followed up by another success back home in Ireland in the Champion novice chase. My only worrier is his jumping. Like Long Run he has the tendency to hit the odd fence, and in a GC this can be crucial. He looks a real stayer on evidence, and can only get better; the extra 4 furlongs may suit.  He is up there at the top of what Ireland has to offer and this leads me on to Flemenstar.

There is no doubt that Flemenstar is one of the top chasers around at the moment but this is simple for me; Peter Casey’s 8 year old shouldn’t even go to the GC. He doesn’t have the stamina to go three miles let alone 3m 4f up the Cheltenham hill. Enough said. (I would love to see him give Sprinter Sacre a run for his money in the Queen mother though)

Form Providers:

First Lieutenant and Tidal Bay provide us with some form to consider linking the English racing to the Irish.  I’ll start with the former who on return this season followed up last year’s 2^nd in the RSA (won by Bobs Worth) with another 2^nd to Kauto Stone at Down Royal followed by another podium finish this time at Newbury in the Hennessy (again won by Bobs Worth). He is clearly getting better with more consistent performances and surely it is only a matter of time before he wins a big one. Tidal Bay followed up his win a Wetherby with a second in the Hennessy and so they both headed to Ireland for the Lexus, and what a Lexus it was. Tidal Bay came storming home to nick it at the death, ahead of First Lieutenant, Flemenstar and Sir Des Champs. At 12 years old though, I can’t see this horse out staying the likes of Bobs Worth or Long Run. A crack at the World Hurdle would be more suited I think.

And The Rest…

The Giant Bolster continues to be on and off after another second at the weekend following a failure in the King George. He showed potential last year finishing second but hasn’t been able to push on this season and I can’t see him posing any danger to the top four. Captain Chris has had a brilliant season so far after beating a poor Finians Rainbow at Ascot followed by a real slog with Long Run in the King George. For him to have any chance here he’s going to need conditions on his side once again. The same applies for Cape Tribulation who dug out a hard fort victory over former champion Imperial Commander in the Argento. I’m not convinced that any of these four will be good enough to win this year though, however for you each way backers there is plenty of value here.

To conclude:

Given the form from the season so far Bobs Worth is going to take all the beating here. He ticks all the boxes and comes here fresh; it wouldn’t surprise me if we have a winning favourite on our hands. However at 3/1 he’s not my idea of value. Tidal Bay saw off the best Ireland has to offer and Bobs Worth dealt with Tidal Bay when not at his best.

Long Run is really going to have to reproduce his old form to win this; Silviniaco Conti has got the beating of him all day long on current form. He stays, jumps fluently and really will be a match for Henderson’s leading contender BW.

First Lieutenant at double figures (12/1) is my idea of value. A brilliant chaser who is still getting better, he’s been up there in every race this season so far without winning and I don’t see why he won’t be a contender this time.

Advise:                   Silvinaco Conti    5/1

                                First Lieutenant 12/1 EW

Ante Post Prices (11/2/13)

Bobs Worth                        3/1

Sir Des Champs                 9/2

Silviniaco Conti                  5/1

Long Run                            6/1

First Lieutenant                12/1

The Giant Bolster             16/1

Captain Chris                    20/1

Imperial Commander        20/1

Katenko                             25/1

Welcome...

Hello faithful followers, and welcome to our JEWTips Blog. On this blog we will post regular articles on upcoming festivals, our favourite horses and our least favourite (Long Run). Four of us will be updating this with tips and hopefully some useful information, that you guys can use to earn some extra sheckles. We all have past history in the betting ring, and are astonished on how quickly our tipping service has picked up.