Cheltenham Day 4 Preview

Cheltenham Day 4 Preview – Gold Cup Day

A day which promised to deliver so much ended up being a real howler. I think most people really struggled from the reaction on twitter today and its hardly surprising looking at the price of the winners, but that’s Cheltenham for you! No favourites came in and the bookies are once again laughing with some huge price winners on day 3! But the headlines will be dominated by the injuries to Davy Russell and JT McNamara and all our thoughts are with them after today.

A cracker to start us off and I can’t pick between the first 3 in the market. The more I look at this race the more confusing it gets. Last week I had Far West at the top but the way the Nicholls yard is going this week I’m not so confident now. Our Conor won impressively last time out beating the Mullins pair Diakali and Blood Cotil and has been talked up a fair bit this week. The same goes for the lightly raced Rolling Star who we don’t know much about, but I do know there are high hopes for this sort from Severn Barrows. There’s no value in the race for me so I’ll be taking a back seat here.

The County hurdle is another big handicap race and on the form Cotton Mill surely has a chance but as we know from the winners this week it’s not as simple as that. He was the best of the rest in the Betfair Hurdle where the impressive MTOY pulled away at Newbury.

In the Albert Bartlett At Fishers Cross will be my first good bet of the day. Backed into 3/1 now, hopefully his class will shine as it did on his last appearance where he saw off The New One at Haydock. The only minor worry would be the ground as Rebecca Curtis was hoping for a drop of rain pre-festival.

And so to the main event of the week; The Cheltenham Gold Cup, and what a race we’re in for. Bobs Worth heads the market at the short price of 5/2 and has been kept fresh for this all season. Given the form so far BW is going to take all the beating here. He ticks all the boxes and comes here fresh; it wouldn’t surprise me if we have a winning favourite on our hands. Tidal Bay saw off the best Ireland has to offer and Bobs Worth dealt with Tidal Bay when not at his best. However at 5/2 he’s not my idea of value. Long Run is really going to have to reproduce his old form to win this; Silviniaco Conti has got the beating of him all day long on current form. He stays, jumps fluently and really will be a match for Henderson’s leading contender BW. The ground drying out will be a plus for all three horses and I think it will come down to who stays on up the hill. Sir Des Champs and Bobs Worth both love it here but I think the former will see it out the best tomorrow and cap off a wonderful week for the Mullins yard! (For further gold cup preview check out http://jewtipsofficial.blogspot.co.uk/2013/02/2013-betfred-gold-cup-preview.html (ante post from 11/2/13))

Out of the last 3 handicaps I’ve got a couple of EW chances but based on what we’ve seen this week confidence is at a low, finding a winner is proving tough and the bookies are well back on top now!  Gevrey Chambertin should go well in the 4:40 although he’s carrying top weight, and in the lucky last Rody, Ulck Du Lin and Shooters wood are in with a chance.

Best of luck and let’s hope for a better day !

Selections:

2:05: Cotton Mill EW

2:40: At Fishers Cross

3:20: Sir Des Champs and Silviniaco Conti EW (advised 11/2/13 on blog) 

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